Bulls Hold Gains, Get Monday Win

9:00am (EST)

The bulls needed a big win on Monday following last week’s technical damage and while it wasn’t pretty, the market ended higher.  The bears made a late day cameo and tried to halt the momentum as Tech and small-caps faltered but the bulls recovered to get a clean sweep.

The Dow jumped 146 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 16,173.  The blue-chips held positive territory throughout the session and reached a peak of 16,184.  The bears held resistance at 16,200 and the 50-day MA after pushing a low of 16,028 late in the day to remind traders they are still trying to get the index below 16,000.

The S&P 500 added 15 points, or 0.8%, to settle at 1,830.  The index cleared its 100-day MA (moving average) at 1,828 after trading to a high of 1,834 and holding this level into the close.  The late day pullback to even was disturbing as the bears are still eyeing 1,800 but the recovery back above 1,825 by the close was reassuring.

The Nasdaq gained 23 points, or 0.6%, to close at 4,022.  We wanted to see Tech clear and hold 4,050-4,025 after kissing 4,050.79 but the late-day fade hurt those chances.  The bears made a late-day charge to push a low of 3,986 but were unable to hold the losses.  There is further risk to 3,950-3,900 on a close below 4,000.  The 200-day MA is at 3,939.

The Russell 2000 advanced 4 points, or 0.4%, to end at 1,115.  The small-caps made a run past 1,125 to 1,126.31 but were unable to hold this level as the bears pushed a low of 1,105 late in the session. Although there was a bounce, it was a lower low than Friday and keeps 1,075 in play.

The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX, 16.11, down 0.92) fell 5% after peaking at 17.40.  The VIX held the 17.50 level on the late day drama while closing below 16.50.  The index continues to be a great indicator for us despite another well-known talking head denouncing the VIX by saying he pays absolutely no attention to it.  A close below 15 today or this week would be super bullish.

The bulls took a big step in recovering last week’s setback but are still on shaky ground.  The indexes are 1% away from a domino effect on continued weakness and another 2% away from recovering prior support levels.  Another positive close today will help get the seesaw action back in the middle.

As we head from desk to press, futures look like this:  Dow (+31); S&P 500 (+3); Nasdaq 100 (+9).

Bulls Walking the Plank


9:00am (EST)

The Dow dropped 143 points, or 0.9%, to close at 16,026 on Friday.  The Dow fell 167 points to close at 16,245 on Monday.  The blue-chips traded up to 16,421 on the open but ended at session lows while holding support.  Tuesday’s dip to 16,180 was textbook as the bears cracked 16,200 but the pullback was bought as the index reached a peak of 16,296 and held 16,250 into the close.  We said it wasn’t the best finish by the bulls as they faced further resistance at 16,350 but Wednesday’s run to 16,438 was impressive.  This kept 16,500-16,600 in play but Thursday’s opening run to 16,456 was in trouble from the start as the Dow gave back 303 points to test a low of 16,153 before ending at 16,170.  Friday’s low was 16,015 and while the bulls held support, there is further risk to 15,800-15,600.  A close back above 16,200 to start the week would be bullish.  For the week, the Dow declined 386 points, or 2.4%, after starting at 16,412 and is down 550 points, or 3.3%, for 2014. (continued…)



Bears Push Fresh Lows

9:00am (EST) The Dow dropped 267 points, or 1.6%, to close at 16,170.  The blue-chips made an opening run to 16,456 but ended near session lows.  Resistance at 16,500 was once again a challenge and the fade back below 16,350 was bearish.  Support at 16,200 held but the low of 16,153 and close were lower than Tuesday’s […]

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Bulls Roll, Recover Resistance

9:00am (EST) The Dow gained 181 points, or 1.1%, to settle at 16,437.  The blue-chips stayed green from the start of trading into the close after reaching a peak of 16,438.  The close back above 16,400-16,350 keeps 16,600 and a run to fresh all-time highs in play.  Support has moved up from 16,200 to 16,350 but it […]

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S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) Back Below 15

9:00am (EST) The Dow added 10 points, or 0.1%, to settle at 16,256.  The blue-chips traded to a low of 16,180 shortly after the open as the bears cracked support at 16,200.  However, the pullback was bought as the index reached a peak of 16,296 and held the 16,250 level.  It wasn’t the best finish […]

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Bulls Get Weekly Win Despite Friday Selloff

The Dow dropped 160 points, or 1%, to close at 16,412 on Friday.  The blue-chips traded to a high of 16,480 on Monday’s continued rebound and cleared resistance at 16,350-16,400 after closing at 16,457.  We said this would pave the way for another run to 16,500-16,600 and Tuesday’s peak reached 16,565 with a finish at […]

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