Bulls Hitting Sweet Spot/Apple Splits Stock

The Dow dropped a 12-pack, or 0.1%, to close at 16,501 on Wednesday.  The blue-chips saw a little green to 16,525 but spent much of the session in the red after a dip to 16,477.  We talked about the bulls holding the 16,600-16,500 zone and like we mentioned, we couldn’t have asked for a better close.  Resistance is at 16,800-17,000 if the bulls can clear and hold 16,600 today. 

The S&P 500 slipped 4 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 1,875.  The index made a fifth-point pop to 1,879.75 at the open and tested 1,873 a few times during the session.  The snapshot close at 1,875 and support had us feeling good as the bulls should have some energy to push 1,900 over the near-term.  

The Nasdaq gave back 34 points, or 0.8%, to end at 4,126.  Tech spent all session under water but held support at 4,125 like a Chevy.  The bears pushed 4,125.41 but the bulls will be looking to clear 4,175 and possibly push 4,200 by the weekend. 

The Russell 2000 sank 8 points, or 0.7%, to settle at 1,147.  The small-caps also stayed in negative territory throughout the trading session after kissing 1,146 a couple of times into the close.  The close below 1,150 was a bummer but a beautiful disguise by the bulls as they easily held 1,140.  We have said a close above 1,160 should get the shorts covering. 

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 13.27, up 0.08) was subdued for a day as it traded in a tight half-point range while holding 13.50 and ending at its session low.  Bingo. 

We should get some nice pin action with our current trades as futures are looking up:  Dow (+26); S&P 500 (+7); Nasdaq 100 (+36).


Bulls Win Volatile Session, Make Statement

9:00am (EST)

The market ended mixed on Tuesday following a midday swoon into negative territory and a rebound into the close.  With many Wall Street traders on spring break this week, volume has been light that tends to lead to choppy and volatile sessions.

The bears pushed the wiggle room we gave the bulls coming into the week as Tech and the small-caps tested their 200-day MA’s (moving averages).  We have said a close below key support levels could have us joining the bears, and at some point this will happen, but as long as the trading ranges stays intact, with a chance of higher highs, we’re sticking with the bulls.

The Dow advanced 89 points, or 0.6%, to close at 16,262.  The blue-chips made an opening run to 16,272 but reversed course shortly afterwards to test a low of 16,063.  The 200-point recovery and close above 16,200 and the 100-day MA was bullish and gets 16,350 back on the bulls radar.  Support is at 16,000 and it would be safe to say if 16,000 cracks, we will get aggressive with index put options.

The S&P 500 added a 12-pack,  or 0.7%, to end at 1,843.  The index reached a peak of 1,843 shortly after the open but faded down to 1,816 in the afternoon.  Support at 1,810 kept the bears from pushing 1,800 and will be the magic number to go short.  The bulls managed to push a higher high of 1,844 into the close and a move above 1,850 and the 100-day MA gets 1,875 back in the mix.

The Nasdaq added 11 points, or 0.3%, to settle at 4,034.  Tech tried to clear resistance at 4,050 after kissing 4,054 at the start of trading before tumbling over 100 points to a low of 3,946.  The bears came within 4 points of triggering the 200-day MA.  The close above 4k keeps the bulls in the game for a possible push to 4,100-4,200 but another close below this level will likely lead to further weakness.

The Russell 2000 popped 4 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 1,119.  The small-caps tried to clear resistance at 1,125 after testing 1,123 but fell below the 1,100 level to 1,095 intraday.  A close below 1,100 and the 200-day MA (1,106) will likely lead to 1,075-1,050 while a finish above 1,125 could lead to another run at 1,150.

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 15.61, down 0.50) traded down to 15.57 on the open before zooming to resistance at 17.50 and holding.  A close above this level would favor the bears while a drop below 15 helps the bulls.

Tuesday’s turnaround may have been the flush that weeded the weaker hands out of the market.  We have talked about the bearishness in recent weeks reaching an extreme but that the 3-year S&P 500 chart showed the uptrend still intact.  We have talked about the VIX, Monday/ Friday closes and trading ranges getting stretched.

Our current trades are holding up well and while we have plenty of room to add new ones, we are still being a little selective with our new candidates due to the volatility.  We have started to lock-in profits in some of them and we continue to be patient as we wait for the next MAJOR trend to develop.  There are plenty of opportunities for 1 and 2-day trades but our timing has to be flawless.  In the meantime, we can relax, enjoy our monster winners, and wait for the action to come to us.

As we head from desk to press, futures look like this:  Dow (+70); S&P 500 (+8); Nasdaq 100 (+16).

Bulls Hold Gains, Get Monday Win

9:00am (EST) The bulls needed a big win on Monday following last week’s technical damage and while it wasn’t pretty, the market ended higher.  The bears made a late day cameo and tried to halt the momentum as Tech and small-caps faltered but the bulls recovered to get a clean sweep. The Dow jumped 146 […]

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Bulls Walking the Plank


9:00am (EST) The Dow dropped 143 points, or 0.9%, to close at 16,026 on Friday.  The Dow fell 167 points to close at 16,245 on Monday.  The blue-chips traded up to 16,421 on the open but ended at session lows while holding support.  Tuesday’s dip to 16,180 was textbook as the bears cracked 16,200 but […]

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Bears Push Fresh Lows

9:00am (EST) The Dow dropped 267 points, or 1.6%, to close at 16,170.  The blue-chips made an opening run to 16,456 but ended near session lows.  Resistance at 16,500 was once again a challenge and the fade back below 16,350 was bearish.  Support at 16,200 held but the low of 16,153 and close were lower than Tuesday’s […]

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Bulls Roll, Recover Resistance

9:00am (EST) The Dow gained 181 points, or 1.1%, to settle at 16,437.  The blue-chips stayed green from the start of trading into the close after reaching a peak of 16,438.  The close back above 16,400-16,350 keeps 16,600 and a run to fresh all-time highs in play.  Support has moved up from 16,200 to 16,350 but it […]

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