S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) Settles at Bearish Reading

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) tested a low of 12.55 with last Friday and key support at 12.50 holding on the market’s opening gains. The surge to 15.27 afterwards breached lower resistance at 15-15.50 and the 200-day moving average but levels that held into the closing bell. There is upside risk towards 17-17.50 on a move above the 15.50 level.

Fresh and rising support is now at 14.50-14 and the 50-day moving average. Continued closes back below 13.50 are now needed to reestablish a possible  bullish signal again for the market.

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TLT Holds 50-Day MA

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was down for the 2nd-straight session after tapping a low of $139.78. Near-term and upper support at $140.50-$140 was breached and failed to hold. A close below the former and the 50-day moving average would be an ongoing bearish signal with downside risk towards $138.50-$138.

Current resistance from late October remains $141-$141.50.

RSI is in a downtrend with support at 55-50. A move below the latter would signal additional weakness towards 45-40. Resistance is at 60 and the November peak.

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QQQ’s Could Be Peaking…

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) had its 4-session winning streak snapped following the pullback to $205. Current and upper support at $205-$204.50 was triggered but held. A close below the latter would signal a possible near-term top with backtest potential towards $202.50-$202.

Resistance is at $205.50-$206. Continued closes above the latter and last Wednesday’s all-time high of $206.05 would be an ongoing bullish signal with upside potential towards $207-$207.50.

RSI has turned south on the close below upper support at 70-65. A close below the latter and the November low opens weakness towards the 60 level and late October support. Resistance is at 75.

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Major Earnings for 8-15-19

Before the open: Alibaba (BABA), Briggs & Stratton (BGG), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Eagle Point Credit (ECC), iHeartMedia (IHRT), JC Penney (JCP), Pointer Telocation (PNTR), Tapestry (TPR), Walmart (WMT)

After the close: Applied Materials (AMAT), Globant (GLOB), Nvidia (NVDA), PagSeguro Digital (PAGS), Sundance Energy Australia (SNDE), Voxeljet (VJET), ZTO Express (ZTO)

Watching the VIX…

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) surged to an midday high of 22.71. Prior and upper resistance at 22-22.50 was breached but held. Continued closes above the latter could lead to a retest towards 24.50-25 with the monthly peak at 24.81.

Rising support at 21.50 followed by 20.50-20.

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Monthly Lows in Focus on Yield Inversion Risk/ Profit Alert (T)

Monthly Lows in Focus on Yield Inversion Risk/ Profit Alert (T)

8:00am (EST)

The market reversed course on Wednesday after giving back the prior session gains as another sharp drop in yields sent investors back to the sidelines. Specifically, the 2-year and 10-year spread inverted for the first time since 2007 with inversions traditionally seen as indicators of impending recessions.

Although it can be debated if the U.S. is indeed headed for a near-term recession, or not, it is clear fears of a global slowdown are real. The headline news had a negative impact on the major indexes, either way, with prior support levels back in play. It is important to note, the market experienced this scenario a few months ago and bounced back after the 10-year yield fell below the 3-month yield.

The Russell 2000 dropped 2.9% after tapping a late day low of 1,465. Prior and upper support at 1,460-1,450 held with the late May and early June lows at 1,461 and 1,460, respectively.

The Nasdaq plummeted 3% following the midday backtest to 7,762 and close back below the 7,800 level. Current and upper support at 7,750-7,700 held with the monthly low at 7,662.

The S&P 500 sank 2.9% after trading to an intraday low of 2,841. The close below the 2,850 level reopens risk towards upper support at 2,825-2,800 and the 200-day moving average with last week’s low at 2,822.

The Dow stumbled 3.1% following the backtest to 25,521 while closing back below the 26,000 level. Upper support at 25,600-25,400 and the 200-day moving average was breached and failed to hold with the August low at 25,440.

There was no sector strength. Energy led sector laggards after sinking 3.9% while Financials and Communication Services skidded 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively.