Quick Market Outlook for 10-14-19

The bulls will need to show continued strength today to confirm higher highs and a possible near-term bottom for the major indexes. The 3-day momentum helped level out the downtrending 50-day moving averages for the major indexes and this was a bullish development.

Although the small-caps remain a slight concern, they could show the most strength on continued overall market strength. Of course, a deceleration of the VIX and close below the 15 level this week will also be needed to confirm near-term bottoms and continued momentum.

We could have fresh New Trades today, depending on the action, so stay locked-and-loaded.

Percentage Ratios Look Bullish

3 Month – $261

 

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above the 200-day moving average closed at 62.57% on Friday, up 4.56%, with the session peak reaching 64.75%. Lower resistance from late September at 62.5%-65% was cleared and held. A close above the latter would signal additional strength towards 67.5%-70% and prior support to start the month. Current support is at 62.5%-60%. A move below the latter would signal caution and additional weakness towards 57.5%-55% with the prior session high reached 54.36%.

The percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above the 50-day moving average settled at 63.10%, up 12.62%, and the intraday high hitting 67.96%. Mid-September and lower resistance at 65%-67.5% was cleared but held. The 67.96% peak was also reached in back-to-back sessions in mid-September. A move above this level would be an ongoing bullish signal for strength towards 70%-72.5%. Current support is at 62.5%-60%. A close below the latter would be a slightly bearish signal with weakness towards 55.5%-52.5%.

Utilities Select Spider (XLU) in a Trading Range…

The Utilities Select Spider (XLU) settled lower for the 4th time in 5 sessions following the intraday pullback to $63.70. Upper support at $63.50-$63 held. A close below the latter would be an ongoing bearish signal with downside risk towards $62.50-$62 and the 50-day moving average.

6 Month – $462

Lowered resistance at $64-$64.50. A close back above the latter would signal a return of strength for a retest towards $65 and fresh all-time highs.

RSI is in a slight downtrend with support at 50. A move below this level would signal additional weakness towards 45-40 with the latter representing the early August low. Resistance is at 55-60.

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Market Update 10-14-19/ Join Now!

Bulls Snap 3-Week Losing Streak

8:00am (EST)

The market was in rally mode from the start of Friday’s open and maintained momentum throughout the session in hopes of a good outcome in the trade talks between U.S. and Chinese representatives. Tweets from President Trump confirmed that the U.S. had reached what is being called a phase 1 deal with China that will be put into writing and signed.

6 Month – $462

The deal covers intellectual property, financial services and $40-$50 billion in agricultural goods purchase. Additionally, Treasury Steve Mnuchin confirmed that the tariff hike that was threatened for next week will not go forward now that a deal has been reached. The gains help snapped a 3-week losing streak for the overall market with the major indexes now in positive territory for the month, aside from the small-caps.

The Russell 2000 rallied 1.8% following the intraday push to 1,525 and close back above the 1,500 level. Prior and lower resistance at 1,515-1,530 and the 50-day moving average was tripped but held with a close above the latter and the 200-day moving average being an ongoing bullish signal.

The Nasdaq zoomed 1.3% after testing an afternoon high of 8,115 and easily closing back above its 50-day moving average. Prior and lower resistance at 8,100-8,150 was breached but held with a move above the latter getting 8,200-8,250 in play. The September highs tapped 8,243 and 8,237 and were a week apart.

The Dow surged 1.2% after trading to a 2nd half high of 27,013. Current and lower resistance at 26,800-27,000 was cleared and held with a close above the latter signaling additional strength towards 27,250-27,500 and the July all-time peak at 27,398.

The S&P 500 soared 1.1% following the intraday day push to 2,993. Lower resistance from early September at 2,975-3,000 was cleared but held with a close above the latter getting 3,025-3,050 and fresh all-time highs back in focus.

For the week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.9% while the Dow rose 0.6%. The Russell 2000 gained 0.7% and needs to clear 1,523 to turn green for the month.

Watching the VIX…

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) surged to an midday high of 22.71. Prior and upper resistance at 22-22.50 was breached but held. Continued closes above the latter could lead to a retest towards 24.50-25 with the monthly peak at 24.81.

Rising support at 21.50 followed by 20.50-20.

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TLT at All-Time High

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) resumed its parabolic run after zooming to $145.73 and another fresh all-time high. Blue-sky and lower resistance at $145-$145.50 was cleared and held. Continued closes above the latter could lead to upside potential towards $147-$147.50.

Rising and near-term support is at $145-$144.50. A close below $144 could lead to a quick backtest towards $142.50-$142.

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